Blog
News | 5 min read
Beyond The Jobs Numbers: What Growth Really Looks Like Now
October 22, 2025
The U.S. labor market might finally be showing its cracks. With months of downward revisions and softening wage growth, the signal seems pretty clear: jobs numbers are cooling. That leaves many business leaders and investors asking the question, “What now?”
The answer isn’t that growth has disappeared. It just doesn’t look the way it used to.
Outgrowing Our Metrics
For those of us on the front lines of economic development, recent jobs reports confirm what we’ve seen for months.
Growth isn’t gone. But it’s showing up differently. And the metrics we rely on need to catch up. Job creation has long been the go-to measure of success, but in today’s economy, it no longer tells the whole story.
Let me be clear: every job matters. In regions like Greater Richmond, though, we’re seeing more companies make strategic investments with leaner headcounts. A project that once brought 500 jobs might now bring less than 100. But it also brings advanced automation, state-of-the-art facilities and long-term infrastructure.
This is not a step backward. It’s a different kind of forward.
Automation, remote work and a tight labor market are pushing businesses to scale differently. And when workers can live anywhere, geographic job counts no longer reflect true economic contribution. That’s because the systems we use to track growth haven’t kept up with the way companies actually grow today. That pattern is playing out in my backyard and in regions across the country.
Small Headcounts, Big Commitments
In Greater Richmond’s active project pipeline, many of the companies we’re working with are planning headcounts of under 100. Some as low as five. But the capital being invested? It’s often in the hundreds of millions.
One recent project brought billions of dollars in capital investment but few jobs. Another upgraded a major R&D facility: no new hires, but millions invested in research that supports a global product line.
hese are big wins without flashy headcount announcements. And they tell us that economic growth today is less about jobs numbers and more about commitment.
Capital Investment Speaks Louder Than Job Counts
When a company commits real dollars to new construction, advanced equipment or upgraded facilities, it’s making a long-term bet on a region’s potential.
That investment (or CapEx) ripples outward, supporting local contractors, suppliers, utilities and infrastructure, and expanding the local tax base along the way.
Equally important, these high-CapEx projects often generate better-paying, more technical jobs, even if there are fewer of them.
Since the pandemic, businesses have increasingly turned to capital spending to overcome labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. This surge in CapEx is aimed at boosting productivity and building resilience into operations.
In short, CapEx is more than a signal of confidence. It’s an investment in future-proofing.
What To Watch For Instead
If you’re a CEO or business leader involved in regional or state economic development efforts, you’re seeing it firsthand: the success of a project is no longer just defined by the size of its workforce.
Even if today’s projects aren’t always headline-grabbing for their job numbers, that doesn’t mean they aren’t powerful. The question isn’t, “How many people will be hired?” It’s, “What does this investment mean for our region’s long-term competitiveness?”
With that in mind, here’s what’s worth watching:
• Capital investment per job – A higher ratio doesn’t mean inefficiency. It signals modern, automated operations that are built to last.
• Job quality – Fewer jobs can still be transformational if they’re high-wage, high-skill roles with growth potential.
• Infrastructure gains – When a company brings new utilities, site improvements or transportation upgrades, that value stays long after the ribbon cutting.
• Resilience through supply chains – The presence of advanced manufacturers or R&D centers strengthens local supplier networks and logistics capacity.
• Broader tax impact – Even low-headcount facilities contribute significantly through business taxes and real estate improvements.
Also consider the impact of remote and hybrid workers. Many high-income professionals now live in one region and work for companies elsewhere. Their paychecks still power local restaurants, housing and retail, even if they never step into an office.
Rethinking The Scoreboard
It’s natural to want a single, simple way to measure success. But the reality is more nuanced.
Projects with modest hiring and large capital investment are not compromises. They’re strategic plays that elevate regional competitiveness and often spark secondary growth that outpaces their initial footprint.
None of this is to say jobs don’t matter. They do. Every single job created brings opportunity and stability. But we’re beyond the era where job numbers alone define success.
To lead and invest effectively in this evolving economy, we need to change how we evaluate impact. Let’s not just count jobs. Let’s count what counts: capital committed, value created and the economic resilience we build for the future.
